Usdmxn Forecast Rabobank

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Usdmxn Forecast Rabobank

USD/MXN Forecast For 2026 - Rabobank

Rabobank has forecasted that USD/MXN will rise in 2026 as the appeal for carry trades will fade away. This comes at a time when the Mexican Peso is already strong against most other currencies.

A quick look at the overall FX market shows the Peso is strong against EUR, GBP, and the USD. However, Rabobank thinks the strength of the Peso will be short-lived.

MXN Long Positions Are Declining

Rabobank added that the global market conditions are no longer supportive for the carry trade. As a result, the USD/MXN will drop lower in the coming months.

The bank also pointed out that investors are now thinking that more upside might not be possible in high-yield currencies like the Peso.

Meanwhile, Banxico has set the rate at 6.50%. The markets are forecasting one more rate hike in 2026, but Rabobank thinks the rates will remain unchanged.

The bank added that the growth rate of Mexico will make it difficult for the central bank to go ahead with further tightening.

All of these things will lower the investors' appetite for the Mexican Peso against the US Dollar. The bank noted that long positions of the MXN have already started to decline. Similar trends are seen in other carry-trade currencies like the South African Rand and Brazilian Real.

Considering all of these things, Rabobank has forecasted the USD/MXN to be near 17.8 in 12 months. Meanwhile, the 12-month forecast for the EUR/MXN is 21.0.

External factors also tell us that the outlook for the Peso has changed in the last few months. The Bank of Mexico has also lowered its growth forecast for the year 2026. They are now looking forward to a GDP growth rate of 1.1% in 2026.

According to the central bank, the economy faces geopolitical and trade risks. All of these things will lower GDP growth and will also have an impact on the MXN.

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