Inflation is no longer a caged monster that was feared from a distance. Right now, the rising energy prices, including brent oil, have sent inflation flying all over the world. Whether you look at the USA, Germany, or even the United Kingdom, the inflation numbers are at all times high.
Based on such an economic backdrop, the experts at UBS have viewed a rather troubling view of the energy sector. They believe that the recent fall in brent oil prices is only temporary and will not be sustainable. Recently, Brent oil from $105 per barrel to only around $94 per barrel right now. Although the $94 per barrel is still high when compared with past prices, experts believe that it will rise even further.
Based on the forecast from UBS, the price of Brent oil will be around $125 till 2023 (after 1 year). For December, the forecast for Brent oil is around $110 per barrel as the oil demand from China is still slow.
By March 2023, the price for Brent oil is expected to be around $125 per barrel, which will be much higher than the current price of $94.
Considering how the world is still powered by Brent oil despite strides in solar power and electric-powered vehicles, it will send inflation higher!
By the end of this quarter, inflation is expected to be around 8.95% in the USA, while it was around 8.8% in the United Kingdom. For first-world countries like the US and the UK, it seems that inflation is already high due to the high energy prices.
Another thing that is rather troubling is the high prices of natural gas. Russia is serious and has already sent a message by shutting off the gas supplies to Europe. So in a sense, there is also no option to move away from the Brent oil towards natural gas since it is also expensive and in limited quantity!
So for the next 1 year and around 4-5 months, you can expect the Brent oil to be higher than $100 and around the $120 - $130 range.