If we look at the historical performance of the EUR against the USD, it appears that the Euro has gained against the US Dollar during December. In fact, it has been this way for the last 20 years, which tells us that the odds for that are very high!
So by keeping the historical performance of EUR/USD during December, there's a high chance that we will see a strong move upwards.
80% Chance Of An Upside Move
When we look at the month of December for the last 20 years, it seems that the EUR/USD moved higher 16th times. In other words, EUR/USD gained bullish momentum 80% of the time!
According to experts, there are many reasons for this type of price action behavior. For starters, the sentiment surrounding the Euro is usually negative during that period.
In addition, the markets usually attempt to cover their short EURO positions during the same period as well. This is done in an attempt to prepare for the end of the year.
However, the month after December is the worst month for EURO! Yes, we are talking about January, when the bearish sentiment clouds the EUR/USD.
If we look at the market conditions, it seems that strong balance sheets are still supporting US consumers. In addition, everyone agrees that Fed will remain hawkish even in 2023!
Elsewhere, there are rising concerns about energy supplies, and the winter season is already here in Europe! As for the Russian-Ukraine war, there are no signs of a slowing down amid renewed attacks from Russia.
So despite the historical performance and the technical indicators, the ground reality is painting a very different picture. No matter how you look at it, the market conditions for the EURO currency are not looking good! In addition, the EURO area as a whole is facing an unprecedented energy crisis amid harsh winter months.