China Growth Will Be Around 4.9% In 2023 With More Stimulus Ahead
According to a recent poll of analysts, there's a good chance that the economic growth of China will be around 4.9% during the year 2023. But for 2024, the growth rate will become more steady as the policymakers take steps to support the economy.
In 2022, the GDP growth of China was 2.8% due to the countrywide lockdowns and decreased economic activity. But just a year before (2021), the growth rate of the Chinese GDP was around 8.4% which reveals the severity of the situation.
For now, it seems that the Chinese government knows about the challenges faced by the country's economy. That's why they are discussing measures to spur growth once again in the economy. In China, the two major threats to the economy are a downturn in the property sector and the zero-COVID policy.
In December, most of the strict COVID measures were lifted by the authorities. But a steady rise in virus infections is still putting a drag on the economy.
Economic Activity To Rebound From March-April
Experts believe that an increase in economic consumption and economic activities will start in March or April. Part of it will be due to the release of extra savings and the re-opening of the Chinese economy from COVID measures.
But there are several factors that will put a cap on the economic rebound. Some of these factors include a lack of consumption stimulus as well as a lack of major income.
That's why the expected growth rate of 2022 will still be lower than the 5.5% target set by the officials. If we exclude the expansion witnessed after 2020's COVID wave, this is the worst performance since 1976!
Most experts agree that China's GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2022 was only around 1.8%. And if we look on a quarterly basis, the economic contraction was close to 0.8% during the last quarter.
The Chinese government will be releasing its GDP data for the 4th quarter as well as the activity data for the month of December in the next few days.
For now, it appears that China is aiming for 5% economic growth in the year 2023. According to officials, this will put a cap on unemployment in the country.