Usdzar Forecast Natixis

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Usdzar Forecast Natixis

USD/ZAR Forecast For 2026 Natixis

USD/ZAR is in a long-term downtrend that's been going on since late 2025. Now, in 2026, it seems that the pair is on the same path and continues to test new support levels.

According to Natixis, the key reason for strength in the Rand is domestic as well as external factors. So even in 2026, the USD/ZAR will continue its downtrend, which is a sign of ZAR's strength.

USD/ZAR Will Reach 16.3 By The End Of 2026

The bank added that the South African rand was one of the best currencies in 2025. The reason for this strength was the higher precious metal prices, which improved the export revenues.

So in a nutshell, the prices of Silver, Gold, and other precious metals increased in 2025. As a result of this, the export revenue also increased, which helped support the ZAR.

The bank also pointed out how the monetary framework in the country is more credible than ever. The bank has also managed to achieve the 3% target for inflation. All of these things have improved the investor confidence in ZAR as a currency.

Also, the coalition government took several reform measures, which also improved the sentiment around South Africa's currency.

At the same time, the easing inflation and a slow domestic growth mean the central bank will have to further lower the policy rate in 2026.

But, we must also understand that the US Federal Reserve will also go ahead with more rate cuts this year. So in the end, the USD/ZAR direction will also depend on the yield difference.

In the long term, the South African rand is likely to stay positive due to low inflation and policy discipline. That's why Natixis has forecasted that USD/ZAR will reach 16.3 by the end of 2026. Even in 2027, the South African rand is expected to gain ground against the US Dollar.

But the bank also warned that some of the short-term moves in USD/ZAR will be choppy. That's why one can only assess the direction by looking at the long-term trend of the South African rand.

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