Inflation is mostly hated, but some traders find it as an opportunity. Nikhil Choraria, partner of Goldman Sachs Group, is one good name who knows the ins and outs of inflation trading. He exploded some of the major banks and hedge funds in the world.
The 38-year-old is based in London and undertakes complex transactions to make a profit from inflation. His team has been orchestrating inflation trading for decades and this has blindsided some central banks and simultaneously convulsed the global economy. In 2021, about $450 million of revenue was generated and the figure was twice of 2020.
Gil Holmes, global head of non-linear rates at the JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York grabbed $300 million from inflation trading in 2021. Similarly, traders at Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc generated profit. Some of the largest banks shared in the same year about $2.3 billion. The figure was at least double compared to that of 2019.
However, the outsized risk is associated with inflation trading and the sterling inflation is well known as the widow maker. It reflects the danger of getting trapped in great losses following traders losing hope in keeping up with the messy factors driving real-world prices. It is important to note that the UK market is termed as tiny and even a few people moving jobs may turn up tricky in finding others who is willing to trade.
Do note that inflation trading is not the market for faint heart and calculations of everyone may not turn up correct. However, those who can navigate the challenges may become a goldmine.
In the 2008 financial crisis, the interest rates were at the rock-bottom level and some of the key factors responsible for inflation were removed. However, the Garda Capital Partners CIO Tim Magnusson said the step was boring as investors are now taking steps in protecting themselves and simultaneously speculating whether consumer prices may go up.
Lately, the daily trading in inflation-linked government bonds has increased amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The US Consumer Price Index jumped to 7.5 percent earlier this year in January and it is the highest since 1982. It is learned about 10 percent of the people in the UK may not be able to afford heat and electricity.
EU governments are setting out relief packages to help people cope with the rising bills. South Asia and Latin American citizens too are facing the same price rises.