As per the latest data, the number of people who have applied for unemployment benefits remains elevated at a 20-month high. This is the 3rd week in a row that US jobless claims remain at such high levels.
According to experts, this is an early signal of a weak labor market as the Fed's credit tightening campaign has finally started to show its true effects.
If we look at the housing market, it is showing signs of stabilization after being disturbed last year due to the Fed's actions. However, the existing homes are sold at a much lower price which tells us that the recovery in this market is very choppy.
As per the data from BLS, around 264000 citizens applied for benefits due to having no job. If we look at the jobless data from last week, it appears that the number for this week remains unchanged.
Overall, the current level of jobless claims in the USA remains at unusually high levels. In fact, such high levels were only last seen on October 2021.
According to independent research think tanks, the expected median number for jobless claims was only 260,000 while the actual number turned out to be 4000 higher.
At the same time, the number of people who are receiving benefits actually took a dive during the week. According to the latest data, around 1.759 million people were receiving jobless benefits in the states.
These conflicting numbers also raise the issue of which statistics truly represent the health of the US labor market? The real answer is that both of these numbers are true and should be looked at together instead of separately.
In addition, the Fed's commitment to go on with an additional 50 bps rate hike will also likely weigh on the US labor market. This means we may see further rise in the US jobless claims in the coming weeks.