UOB Group's economist believes that the NZD/USD is highly likely to rise towards 0.6100. This retest of the 0.61 handle will likely occur in the short term.
Just a day ago, the UOB Group made a forecast that the NZD/USD was expected to touch 0.6020 and then move lower. However, they didn't know that the pair's price action would bring the 0.6055 resistance into play.
But the price action of yesterday was more bullish than the economists initially expected. As a result, the pair managed to cross the 0.6020 level, which signified the improved momentum.
Now, it seems that the NZD/USD will likely cross the 0.6055 resistance but will not be able to cross the 0.6100 handle for now. On the downside, the nearest support level for the NZD/USD is 0.6020, and then the 0.6000 handle.
In the next 1 to 3 weeks, the NZD will likely gain more ground against the USD, but the 0.6055 level will remain the key. So once the NZD bulls conquer that level, then the next stop will be towards the 0.6100 handle.
Even if we keep the NZD/USD technicals aside for a moment, the fundamental setup also looks promising for New Zealand's Dollar. For starters, China has introduced yet another package for the real estate sector, which will provide support to the economies of Australia & New Zealand.
Another factor that supports a bullish NZD is the apparent weakness in the greenback as of late. Whether we look at the US data, bond yields, or even the forecast for the Fed, everything points to a weaker US Dollar.
Since we are talking about the performance of the NZD against the USD, it makes sense for the NZD to turn higher and touch the next resistance levels, including the 0.6100 handle.
However, any hawkish surprises from the Fed meeting minutes will render this forecast ineffective & may force the NZD/USD to turn lower.