Eurusd To Stage A Recovery

Eurusd To Stage A Recovery by Adam Rosen last updated on December 01, 2023

EUR/USD To Stage A Recovery In 2024, According To Commerzbank

According to Commerzbank's economists, the EUR/USD will likely stage a recovery in the next year (2024). If we look at the EUR/USD's performance in 2023, it went through a zig-zag trading pattern and didn't stage any bullish or bearish rally at all.

But it appears that the Commerzbank's experts believe this situation will change starting from next year. If we look at the bigger picture, the EUR/USD is on a bearish path with only short recovery rallies every now and then.

However, the recovery in 2024 is only expected to be moderate, which means EUR/USD bulls don't have a lot to celebrate.

As for the ECB's rate decision, the rate cuts from the European Central Bank will be lower than the market expectations.

1.09 Target Set By Commerzbank

By the end of 2024, Commerzbank believes that the EUR/USD will be seen trading near the 1.09. The reason for this appreciation in the EUR against the USD is attributed to the greenback's performance.

In 2024, the Commerzbank's economists believe that the rate cuts by the Fed will send the greenback back. They added that the decline in the USD will be similar to how it gained ground after the rate hikes.

For now, the EUR/USD is trading above 1.0650, which is around 250 pips away from the target of 1.09. But since Commerzbank has given the 1.09 for 2024's end, the pair will likely try to go through various trend phases before stabilizing near the 1.09.

It appears that the ground for the 1.09 forecast of EUR/USD is that the rate cuts from the Fed will take place at a faster pace than the ECB. So if the interest rate on the EUR is higher and the rate on the USD is lower, it is only natural for the EUR/USD to gain ground.

Since Commerzbank is hinting at USD weakness, it also means that similar play will take place in the USD/JPY and GBP/USD as well.