EUR/USD is currently trading below the 1.0750 handle and isn't showing any directional bias. It appears that traders are refraining from placing any trades in the EUR/USD ahead of the Fed policy meeting and the US CPI.
Both of these data releases are of high importance, which is the key reason why we are seeing sideways trading in the Euro/Dollar pair.
If the current bearish tone persists in the EUR/USD, it will send the pair towards the 1.0719, the low from 11th June. Next up is 1.0649, the low from the 1st of May, followed by the 1.0600 static level.
But if the bulls gain the upper hand in the EUR/USD, the next target will be 1.0787, where the 200 SMA is present. Once this hurdle is cleared by the EUR bulls, the next roadblock will be at 1.0916 and then at 1.0981.
On the EUR/USD's H-4 chart, the downward trend is pretty clear, with the next support levels at 1.0719, 1.0650, and then 1.0520.
On the upside, the next hurdle is 1.0804, and then 1.0835, where the 55 SMA is present. In fact, even the RSI (14) on the h4 chart is near 30, which hints at the presence of bears. A day earlier, the greenback resumed its recovery after the NFP and pushed the EUR/USD lower to nearly 1.0720.
Besides the strength of the USD, the EUR is also on the back foot because of Europe's political situation. Meanwhile, ECB officials believe that they are on the path to achieving the target of 2% inflation in 2025. They also believe that the fluctuations seen in the monthly data are nothing but noise that can be ignored.
If we look at the US Federal Reserve, the recent NFP report has further dampened the chances of a rate cut in September. Despite all of this, we still have the Fed's word that rate cuts will happen in the year 2024.