The latest report from Jefferies shows the poor performance of the iPhone in the Chinese market. On a Y/Y basis, the iPhone's market share has declined by almost 30%, which is a worrying sign for Apple.
According to Jefferies, in 2023, we pushed the iPhone almost 3% lower in the Chinese market. If we look at the decline in market share, that's equal to around 0.4 points.
The recent report was a negative surprise for most of Apple's shareholders. As for which other mobile brands are replacing the iPhone, the big names include Xiaomi, HW, and Samsung.
The experts believe that the YoY growth will experience more pressure as 2023 is a high base. The change will affect iPhone sales, which could be a better sign. After the news, Apple's stock declined by 0.3%, which is not a significant drop given the magnitude of this news.
While the iPhone has failed to close the year positively, the sales of Android-based phones remained strong. 2024 saw Android phones take up most of the market share in China, mainly driven by Xiamoi & and other brands.
In 2023, the shipments of Android phones peaked at 35 million but failed to reach the 40 million forecast. The -5 million difference in the shipments of Android phones is attributed to supply constraints.
The report also shows that the discounts for previous iPhone models (14 and 14+) have decreased. As for the deals for the iPhone 15 models, the increase is moderate.
Jefferies' report added that the discounts offered on iPhone 14 and 14+ will lower Apple's ASP in the Chinese market.
Against this backdrop, Jefferies commented that Apple's revenue is at a higher risk of further decline in 2024. Chinese consumers are more interested in Chinese mobile phone brands than US-based Apple products.