On the LME (London Metal Exchange), the price of copper is near $10K per ton. Its important to mention that the Copper prices were near the same level during October 2024.
Based on the market fundamentals, ING analysts believe that the Copper prices will remain supported for now. It means we can expect the Copper prices to be near the current levels or even higher during the Q2.
Since the start of 2025, Copper prices have moved higher by 14.00%. It seems that the tariff threats by Trump lead to an increased flow of Copper into the USA. Meanwhile, a tight supply of Copper was seen in the other markets.
However, one thing is certain, and that is Trump's plan to put tariffs on Copper. If this happens, the prices of Copper will definitely move higher.
That's why the CME copper stocks are also on the rise since Trump's win. On the other hand, a decline was seen in the stockpiles of the LME.
An increase in the Copper warrants cancellation was also seen as of late. Meanwhile, the Asian markets show a large drawdown in the inventory of Copper. A similar situation is also seen in the Europe, highlighting the importance of the situation.
Based on all of this, ING believes that Copper prices will continue to be supported. The talks of the tariffs will especially ensure that the prices remain supported. Also, the ex-US market (physical) is also tightening due to the ongoing US investigation.
We must also understand that Copper imports are essential for the USA. In 2024, around 850K tonnes of Copper were imported into the USA. This only accounts for around half of the domestic consumption in the USA. So, there is no way for the USA to fill the gap using the locally produced Copper.