Usdmxn Forecast Rabobank

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Usdmxn Forecast Rabobank

Usd/Mxn Forecast From Rabobank

The MXN (Mexican Peso) is rallying against the greenback as of late. However, Rabobank believes that this rally will be short-lived as the enthusiasm over the carry trade will fade away.

Rabobank also added that the economic fundamentals will also deteriorate which will ultimately effect the MXN value. As for the short term, the bank believes that MXN will continue to gain ground as investors are viewing it as a carry currency.

Banxico To Cut Rates Twice This Year

But in the next 3 months, the bank believes this rally will fade as it is unsustainable given the fundamental situation.

The Mexico's GDP growth is slowing down and other fundamentals also doesn't support the MXN in the long term. On top of that, the US tariffs will also have a negative impact on the MXN.

For now, the USD/MXN is trading in the 18.00 - 19.00 range with a bearish trend. However, Rabobank believes a reversal is on the cards during the next 3 months.

Looking ahead, US tariffs on Mexican goods will eventually translate into a slowdown of the Mexican economy. As of now, around 80% of the country's total exports are for the USA, accounting for 40% of GDP.

So, any new heavy tariffs on the Mexico will ultimately effect the MXN's value against the USD and even the Euro. Meanwhile, the Banxico is expected to keep cutting the rates.

By the end of 2025, the interest rate in Mexico will drop to 7.50%. Rabobank believes the central bank will deliver 2 more rate cuts before the end of the year.

So based on all of this, Rabobank forecasts the USD/MXN to reach 19.0 during the next 3 months. By the end of 2025, the USD/MXN pair will reach 19.2.

For the EUR/MXN, the Rabobank forecasts it will touch 22.5 during the next 6 months. Over a span of 12 months, the pair will rise towards 23.4.

Over all, the MXN is forecasted to lose its value against the US Dollar, Euro, and the other currencies.

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