The UOB Group's analysts believe that the USD/JPY pair will likely trade with an upward bias in the long term. If we look ahead, the first resistance is seen near 159.00, followed by the next one at 160.00.
But before we discuss the 160.00, the USD/JPY will need to clear the 159.00 with sufficient momentum. The USD/JPY pair is close to its first resistance, but the upward momentum appears to be slowing down.
So, there's a chance that the USD/JPY may turn lower and catch its breath before targeting the next resistance. In fact, it seems that the USD/JPY is in range trading, which is totally normal under the current circumstances.
In the short term, the USD/JPY is expected to trade in the 157.60 - 158.55. For the next 1 to 3 weeks, the trading bias remains bullish.
However, the upward bias in the USD/JPY will get out of the window if the 157.20 support is lost. When that happens, the next stop for the USD/JPY will be 156.50 and then 155.00. Below that, the next key levels for the USD/JPY are 153.00 151.00, and 150.00.
On the way up, the next stop after the 159.00 will be 160.00. Beyond that, the next key levels for the USD/JPY are 162.00, 165.00, and then 168.00.
However, it seems that the markets are likely waiting to see more from President Trump when he gets into office. He is expected to pass hundreds of executive orders that could stir up a lot of volatility in the USD.
If we look at the history, the USD/JPY is expected to move higher under the effect of the Trump rally. Although the Trump rally already happened with the election outcomes, it is highly likely to happen again.
Amidst all of this, it makes sense to think that UOB Group's forecast for bullish USD/JPY is highly likely. But once the 160.00 is cleared, the chances of BoJ intervention will also increase manifolds.