As Tuesday's session unfolds, the USD/INR is showing signs of strength as the investors await Powell's speech. The INR is under pressure ahead of the high volatility event as the US Fed is expected to not cut rates in 2024.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices continue to rise amid geopolitical risks, which are also putting pressure on the INR. India is among the top oil importers in the world, and higher oil prices mean the government has to spend more on foreign reserves to buy oil.
Despite all of this, the Indian economy is still pretty strong if we look at economic progress, foreign reserves, and bond yields. So, that provides a little support to the INR against the USD.
The key focus of the FX market will be on what Jerome Powell has to say about the interest rate policy in the USA. Once this is behind us, the focus will shift to India's PMI reading for June. According to experts, a higher PMI reading will boost the INR and allow the USD/INR to turn lower.
For now, the INR remains weak as the USD/INR is still stuck in a familiar trading range. The USD/INR is in a bullish trend for now as the pair is still trading above the 100 SMA on the D1 chart. However, there's also a little chance that the USD/INR could go down as the RSI is printing below the 50 line.
If the Jerome Powell comments hint at a bullish policy, it will send the USD/INR towards the 83.75, all times high of the pair. Any further selling pressure on the INR could also send the pair towards the 84.00.
In the case of INR strength, the nearest support is 83.35, where the 100 SMA is located, followed by 83.00 and 82.50. However, the USD/INR is likely to stay elevated amid rising oil prices and broader USD strength.