According to a senior FX strategist from UOB Group, there's a high chance of USD/JPY moving lower towards the target of 141.66. They cited the recent weakness of the US Dollar and how it would allow the JPY to gain an edge against it.
In the short term, we can't rule out the possibility of a revisit to the 141.66 area. Just a few days ago, the USD/JPY was trading around 144.44 - 146.59, making it difficult to figure out the trend.
Today, the US dollar is expected to inch a little higher, but it will not be able to break the resistance to nearly 147.10. UOB Group also mentioned that the USD/JPY can find support at 145.80 and then at 145.25. Below these 2 levels, the next target for the US Dollar bears will be 141.66.
But before the 141.66 comes into focus, let's not forget there is another support at the 144.00 handle. Just like the 145.80/145.25, this one is also equally important and could prevent the bears from pushing lower.
On the way up, the first resistance for the USD/JPY pair is seen near the 148.00 handle. A successful break of this level will be a sign that bearish pressure has faded, and now the US Dollar is back in the driving seat.
But, all of this is based on the technical analysis which doesn't involve looking at the fundamentals. The ground reality is that the first-rate cut from the Federal Reserve is only a few weeks away. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has become an outlier as it is talking about rate hikes in an environment of global policy easing.
In this scenario, we can't rule out the possibility that USD/JPY will move lower towards the 141.66. In fact, there's a higher chance of the USD/JPY moving lower in the coming weeks as compared to moving higher towards 148.00, 150.00, or even 152.00.
Whatever direction the USD/JPY assumes in the coming week, one thing is for sure... The volatility is sure to increase which means bigger trading range for the pair.