Natural Gas is trading at a multi-month high after the weather reports forecast a temperature drop in several EU countries. The change in the temperature will occur in the next few weeks, which means that EU citizens will have to rely on natural gas for their heating needs.
Based on the historical weather patterns, it appears that the cold is coming way sooner than what's normal. In simple words, the households in the EU will be turning their thermostats higher way sooner than initially expected.
This was the basic reason that supported the Natural Gas and sent it to 8-month highs. In addition, the US jobless data was also released a few days ago, which showed a little concern about the US labor market. However, investors are more interested in NFP, which means the jobless data is already in the rearview mirror.
For now, the trading price of Natural Gas is $3.20 / MMBtu with a forecast of more upside. Right now, the temperature in the EU is high, but it seems the investors are totally ignoring the present. Instead, investors are now looking at the forecast, which tells that cold weather is coming soon.
Keeping the temperature forecast in sight, it is only natural to assume that the EU will ensure that its natural gas reserves stay full before the colder weather kicks in. In a sense, it makes sense for the natural gas market to go through a squeeze as there will be more demand than supply.
One of the pivot points in the Natural gas was the $3.07 level, which is already pierced in a bullish manner. Now, the $3.07 will act as a floor and send the natural gas higher to levels once again. There's a high chance that the Natural Gas will turn higher and touch the $3.30 resistance very soon.