Alex, a key crypto analyst, believes that there's a 70% chance of Bitcoin ETF approval in January 2024. If this becomes a reality, the crypto community will get its first-ever Bitcoin-based ETF (spot).
According to experts, the crypto players are utilizing a strategy known as 'sell the news', which means they plan to sell the crypto holdings based on the news. At the same time, there's an increased correlation between the BTC and the US Dollar index, which suggests that a crypto rally may happen during 2024.
In other words, there's a 30% chance that we may not get the Bitcoin ETF. After all, it is essential to also look at the odds of failure rather than focusing on the positive outcomes.
Either way, approval from the SEC or an outright rejection of the Bitcoin ETF will invite major volatility in the BTC & other cryptocurrencies. In case of approval, we may finally see a bullish rally in BTC during 2024, which may send it higher than the $30K level.
Similarly, rejection from the SEC means the BTC will take a nosedive once again and refresh monthly/yearly lows. According to one analyst, the BTC will fall down to the $23K level in case of rejection. On the other hand, approval will easily send the BTC to yearly highs in no time at all (a few weeks at best).
According to the managing director of BlackRock, a Bitcoin-based ETF will be approved in the next 3 to 6 months. However, Alex believes that it will happen in January, which is around 3-4 months from now. If we combine both of these forecasts, the Bitcoin approval will be coming in the next 3 to 5 months.
At the same time, another noteworthy thing is that an increase in ETF applications has been witnessed as of late. Right now, around 16 applications for crypto ETF are waiting for approval by the SEC.