GBP/USD is trading on a firmer note near the 1.2900 handle on the D1 chart. On the surface, it may seem that the gains in GBP/USD are slight, but this signals that the softness in GDP has ended.
According to analysts from Scotiabank, the recent gains in the GBP are a sign that the GBP/USD is now developing and gaining momentum near 1.2900.
There was no major data release from the UK, but the PMI data for July will be released tomorrow. According to Scotiabank, this will help the markets gauge whether the Bank of England will cut the rates at the August meeting or not.
Any major developments in the deflation trend in the UK will be a sign that the BoE can now lower the policy rate. Right now, the market is forecasting an interest rate cut of around 11 bps at the August meeting.
For now, the decline in the GBP/USD has ended, as evidenced by the recent gains. Additionally, it also signals that a rebound in GBP/USD is just around the corner, which could take the GBP/USD pair towards the next bullish targets.
The GBP/USD D1 chart also shows a candlestick pattern called 'Harami' information. If the pattern is confirmed through the daily candle close, it will mean that the 1.2900 - 1.2910 is now firm support for the GBP/USD.
According to Scotiabank, the next resistance levels for the GBP/USD are located near 1.2970 - 1.2975 and the 1.3045 - 1.3050 region.
Once the 1.2900 is confirmed as support on the D1 chart, it will make it easy for the traders to target the next levels near 1.2970 and then the 1.3050.
Another interesting development is that the BoE actually lowered the rate in August, while the data from the USA shows that the Fed will have to wait till December to lower the policy rate. In that case, the GBP/USD could resume its downtrend once again and move lower towards 1.2800 and then 1.2700 support levels.