The GBP/USD pair had a great start this week, as evidenced by the bullish opening from Monday. However, this has now come to a stall as the pair is struggling to maintain a bullish tone and can be seen trading above 1.2650.
The GBP/USD investors are now waiting for the US PMI data (manufacturing) to get insights into the health of the US economy. If we look at the past, the US manufacturing PMI data has shown contraction consistently, and the upcoming reading will also show a similar result.
The RSI indicator on the GBP/USD H4 chart shows it is above the 60 threshold, which means a buildup of bullish momentum. So, if the GBP/USD resumes its uptrend, the next resistance will be 1.2700, where the 100 SMA is located. Next up is 1.2760, where the 200 SMA is present, followed by a static level at 1.2800.
On the way down, the 50 SMA is seen near 1.2665, followed by the 1.2640 support where the 100 SMA (D1 chart) is located. Next up is the static level of 1.2600, which is also a major chart on the daily GBP/USD chart.
There's no doubt that the greenback is experiencing selling pressure, which has sent the GBP/USD higher. Last Friday, the PCE data showed a jump to 2.6% y/y during May, which means there's less reason for the Fed to cut rates at the upcoming meetings.
The upcoming PMI data from the US will be the main focus as a lot of economies are forecasting the index to edge higher towards 49.00. Even if that turns out to be true, it will still be under 50, which is a sign of contraction rather than expansion.
So if the PMI data is in line with the investors expectations, then the next focus will be on jobs related data. However, if the PMI data shows a sharp decline, it could make things more difficult for the US dollar.