GBP/USD is trading above the 1.300 handle on Monday as the market is going through a phase of relative calm. However, several key data releases from the UK are due which will invite a lot of volatility.
UK Labor Market data is due on Tuesday, followed by the UK CPI and the PPI on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the US Retail Sales will also be closely watched on Thursday. This will be followed by the release of the UK Retail Sales on Friday.
Overall, this is going to be a busy week for the GBP/USD, and the recent calm is just temporary. According to the expectations, the UK labor data will be soft in the 3rd quarter. Similarly, the Average Earnings is also expected to move back to 4.9%.
Another important metric, the UK's Claimant Count Change, is also forecasted to move lower to 20,200 in September from 23,700 in August. The forecast shows that the ILO Unemployment Rate will remain unchanged at 4.1% in August.
GBP/USD technical analysis shows that the momentum has shifted on the D1 chart. This happened after the GBP/USD dipped below the 50 EMA near 1.3105.
Ever since making a high in September, GBP/USD has been going through a pullback, while the 50 EMA shows a flat slope. That's a sign that GBP bulls have weakened and are waiting for fresh impetus.
However, the GBP/USD is still above 1.28450 where the 200 EMA is located, which is a key support level. Looking ahead, the 1.3000 will be an important support, followed by the 1.28450, where 200 EMA is present.
On the other hand, the 1.31050 will be an important dynamic resistance that will hold the bullish momentum. However, if the GBP/USD bulls break through, the short-term trend will shift in favor of the bulls.
However, it would be wise to wait for the upcoming data releases as it can render any technical analysis invalid, depending on the results.