The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) managed to touch another high on Thursday only to turn lower and shed 500 points. Now, the DJIA prices on the intraday timeframe are back in the familiar range, which highlights the market's uncertainty.
Right now, DJIA is trading above the 40,000 level, which is serving as solid support. There's no doubt that DJIA is trading at all-time highs as the September rate cut keeps the index in the green.
few weeks earlier, there was a 90% chance of a rate cut at the September meeting. Now, the odds of a rate cut have gone up to 98%, which means the rate cut is now a done deal. As for the rate cut during July, there's only a 5% chance right now, which is pretty low.
The recently released initial jobless claims have also bolstered the case for rate cuts as the number of jobless benefits seekers has increased to 243,000.
Jobless claims data isn't as important as the NFP, but it does add credence to the hopes that the Fed will transition into a rate-cutting cycle.
Coming back to DJIA, the index managed to cross the 41K level and made a new all-times high. However, the pair has since moved back near the 40900 level amid profit-taking and some selling. Despite the short-term selling, the DJIA has closed 6 days in green and gained almost 5.5%.
As more and more data comes in favor of the upcoming rate cut, the US stock indexes, such as the S&P 500, DJIA, and Nasdaq Composite, will continue to print new all-time highs.
However, a series of disappointing earnings from the tech stocks could change that narrative and send these indexes lower. If we look at the upside, the next targets for the DJIA includes the 41K, 42K, and the 43K levels.