AUD/USD is steady and trading just below the 0.6750 handle on Thursday following the upbeat jobs data from Australia. The jobs data for the month of June has increased the chances of another rate hike from the RBA.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is under pressure due to the prospect of a Fed rate cut in the next few months. Overall, the RBA is thinking about a rate hike, while the US Federal Reserve is thinking about a rate cut.
When we look at these things, it becomes clear why the AUD/USD is trending higher while the downside remains capped.
If the AUD/USD drops from these levels, the next support will be around 0.6658 or the 55 EMA. A successful break of this level will open the doors to the 0.6574 (10th June low), which is also close to the 200 SMA on the D1 chart. Beyond these levels, the next important support is 0.6363, the bottom of the year 2024.
Another scenario is that the AUD/USD extends its gains, which brings the next target around 0.6798 in focus, followed by 0.6871 resistance. After that, the 2023 peak is located at 0.6894, which will also serve as a strong resistance. Beyond these levels, the 0.7000 round figure is present to cap any gains.
Right now, the AUD/USD is under the influence of an uptrend, provided that it continues to trade above the 200 SMA. However, if we look at the H4 chart of AUD/USD, we can see that the negative trend is accelerating. On the H4 heart, the first support is 0.6714, followed by the 100 SMA at 0.6711. After that, the next dynamic support is provided by 200 SMA near the 0.6675 level.
To conclude, AUD/USD is bullish on the D1 chart while the H4 chart is slowly turning in the favor of the sellers. Given the current weakness of the US dollar, the bullish trend of AUD/USD will likely continue for a while.