The release of the retail sales from China had a positive impact on the AUD/USD. As a result, the pair is now en route towards the 0.6600 handle as the AUD is enjoying positive Chinese data.
Additionally, the market's mood has also turned towards 'risk-on' today which is also keeping the greenback under check. Now, the AUD/USD focus has shifted towards the RBA decision, which is due tomorrow.
Technical analysis shows that the AUD/USD was trading close to 0.6570 on Friday. The nearest support is 0.6555 based on the 50% fib retracement, which also aligns with the horizontal support as well.
If the AUD/USD breaks the 0.6550 support zone, it will lead to more selling and increase the chances of hitting the 0.6528 handle. After that, the only logical support is seen near the 0.6500.
If we look at the upside, the 9 EMA can be seen near 0.6538, which will act as dynamic resistance followed by the 0.600 handle. A break above both of these levels will mean a revisit of 0.6638 becomes a high probability.
If we look at the Australian stock market, the famous ASX 200 is also lurking near the weekly lows due to a marketwide selloff. However, the selling pressure seen in the Australian shares is coming from Wall Street, where iron ore mining and banking stocks showed a major decline.
Amidst all of this, the RBA meeting is due and the market's view is that the central bank will keep its policy of rate hikes. Meanwhile, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is also due which could impact the USD.
The bigger picture is AUD/USD has turned positive in the short-term on accounts of Chinese data. However, the long-term still supports a bearish AUD/USD as the Fed is still showing no signs of rate cuts at all.
However, if the RBA actually goes ahead with a rate cut in these times, it could provide a boost to the AUD/USD.