Bears of the AUD/USD are attempting to challenge the 0.6800 handle on Friday. The AUD/USD has intensified its bearish phase after the PBoC's decision to not change the mortgage lending rates for September.
Amidst all of this, the market mood is also very cautious which is also weighing heavily on the AUD/USD. Now, the eyes are on the Fedspeak to get a better understanding of what's ahead in the US monetary policy.
Any more gains in the AUD/USD will send it towards 0.6839 which is the high from 19th September. Once this level is in the control of AUD/USD bulls, the next target will be 0.6871 which is the top from December 2023. Beyond these resistance levels, the next target is 0.7000.
And if we look down, the first support is 0.6750, followed by the next one at 0.6622. Below it, the 200 SMA is present, which is currently present around 0.6347. The 0.6347 is also very important as that's the bottom of the year 2024.
The H4 chart shows that optimism is still bullish, with the first resistance being near 0.6839. On the way down, the first support is 0.6732, where the 100 SMA is located, followed by 55 SMA near 0.6711.
Initially, the AUD/USD moved higher after the Fed's rate cut, but that was changed, and now the pair is trending lower again. This was due to comments from Fed officials downplaying the chances of another big rate cut in November.
Meanwhile, the prices of iron and copper are also ticking higher but they seem to have much of an impact on the AUD/USD. The biggest drag on the AUD/USD right now is most obviously the PBoC decision to not change the mortgage rate.
One of the major problems faced by the Chinese economy is its real estate sector. A lowering of the mortgage rate would have helped the sector a lot but it seems that China is not yet ready for that.