According to ING analysts, there's a good chance that USD/CAD will cross the 1.40 handle. This comes at a time when the volatility in the USD/CAD has returned to normal levels.
Also, this pair is now driving based on the US growth sentiment and thus is highly dependent on the US economy. With all things considered, there is now a stronger case for the USD/CAD to cross the 1.40 handle.
The CAD is trading on a softer tone as of late as the reports suggest that the US-Canada tension is not going to come down. Meanwhile, the chances of a trade deal are also not that high as the US keeps a stern stance.
Also, the USMCA renegotiations are also not on the table as of now. If they are, it would take several years to work out something that's suitable for the Canada and the USA.
The short-term and medium-term risks are also favoring an upside in the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, the domestic data shows that the Bank of Canada will be forced to cut rates again in the next few months.
rate cut by the BoC will be the prime opportunity for the USD to gain the upper hand against the CAD. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is also expected to cut the rates.
But if we look at it from an economic point of view, the US economy is still stronger and more resilient than Canada. So based on that factor alone, the USD/CAD is all set to cross the 1.40 and target the next resistance level at 1.45.
But, what happens if the US recession turns into a reality? That would be real bad for the US Dollar and the market may get under shock. In that case, we can expect a decline in the USD/CAD with the 1.35 as the most probable target.