The GBP/USD pair is seen trading near 1.30 and is at multi-month highs. However, Goldman Sachs believes that the path ahead for the GBP/USD is towards the downside.
In the next 12 months, GBP/USD believes that GBP/USD is highly likely to move lower and settle near 1.22. They added that the German fiscal plans led to an overreaction from the market.
Looking ahead, the trade policies of the USA will lead to a negative impact on the GBP & other European currencies. Based on this, Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the GBP/USD.
Goldman Sachs has also revised its forecast for the EUR/USD. Although the target is set a little higher, they are still expecting the pair to close in net loss.
They added that the US administration will adopt a very aggressive approach regarding the tariffs. When that happens, the GBP will be on the back foot and the US Dollar will take the driving seat.
They also commented on how the global economy will undergo a major impact. At the same time, they have also forecasted a net dollar appreciation. This will be more true against the currencies from Europe.
In addition, Goldman Sachs also believes that the implementation of the European fiscal stimulus will not be easy. That's why they have maintained a disappointing growth outlook for the Eurozone.
Meanwhile, many investment banks believe that the US Dollar is now overvalued. But, Goldman Sachs added that it is the European currencies which are overvalued.
However, this forecast for the GBP/USD will become invalid if the US economy goes through a wider deterioration. In that case, the GBP/USD pair and even the EUR/USD will actually move higher.
But for now, Goldman Sachs is bullish on the US Dollar against the GBP, EUR, & other Eurozone currencies.