The geopolitical tension is at an all-time high, which has also changed the market mood to be more cautious. Despite this, EUR/USD is holding on to its gains as it trades above the 1.05 level.
On Monday, the US Dollar appears to be on the back foot against the Euro and other currencies. According to one expert, the tension in the Middle East is preventing the US Dollar from gathering momentum. At the same time, it is also preventing the EUR from gaining meaningful momentum as well.
A quick look at the EUR/USD daily chair tells us that the recent advance of the EURO is correct. The EUR/USD is trading below its 20 SMA, which is also showing a bearish angle. At the same time, the 20 SMA is also below the other major SMA lines with an important resistance located at 1.0570.
Furthermore, the technical indicators on the EUR/USD D1 are showing bullish advances but still remain in negative territory. The famous indicator RSI is hovering near the 42 level, which suggests that the buying interest remains limited.
Given the technical outlook, the EUR faces a higher risk of downside price action in the short term. On the EUR/USD 4-hr chart, most of the MA lines are above the current price levels. For starters, the 20 SMA is in the 1.0560 region along with the 100 SMA line as well. This is an indication that strong resistance is present in the 1.0560 - 1.0570 area.
For the rest of the trading week, the important support levels will be 1.0495 and then 1.0450. If the US Dollar gains strength and causes the EUR/USD to drop below both of these levels, the next stop will be the 1.0400 level.
On the upside, the 1.0570 level remains the most relevant resistance, as several SMA lines are present in that region. After that, we have the 1.0610 resistance level followed by the 1.0650.