bullish rally in the AUD/USD is still on the cards, according to analysts from the ING. They added that a minimum of one rate cut from the RBA is expected by the year-end (2024).
As for a possible target for the AUD/USD rally, ING believes that the 0.68 handle seems to be within reach. However, it would depend on whether Australian inflation goes down in the next few months.
Also, big rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve will help the AUD/USD pair rally higher. Amidst all of this, let's not forget that the RBA has also managed to keep the threat of more rate hikes alive.
So, when we look at the strength of the AUD/USD, it becomes clear where it is stemming from! ING believes that the AUD/USD will continue to turn higher in the near-term due to the policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve and the RBA.
ING commented on how more policy tightening by the RBA is still on the cards. This will become a reality if the Australian CPI (monthly) turns higher and forces the RBA to take action.
Right now, all things point to more upside for the Australian Dollar (AUD). That's why it has managed to become one of the favorite currencies of the FX market.
Whenever there's a risk-on move in the market, the first currency to benefit from it is always the Australian Dollar (AUD).
However, there's one factor that could stop the AUD/USD from reaching the 0.68 target. It is the upcoming US elections in which a Trump win could send the AUD/USD pair lower.
In this case, we can expect a broader uptick in the US Dollar across all the major pairs, such as EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/JPY. It would be similar to the Trump rally we saw many years ago, with the only exception that the Fed is on the verge of changing its monetary policy.