AUD/USD is on a losing streak and has declined to 0.6650 level during Tuesday's session. The bearish overtone in the AUD comes after the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting minutes.
The meeting minutes showed that the RBA is ready to commit to another rate hike if the data warrants it! However, this was not enough to propel the AUD higher, as the USD was also in a strong position ahead of Powell's speech.
If the AUD/USD bulls gain the upper hand, the pair can revisit the 0.6714 level, which is the peak of May. Next up is 0.6871, the highest from December 2024. If the bulls can manage to break both of these levels, the next target for the AUD/USD will be 0.7000 resistance.
The second scenario is strong bearish momentum in the AUD/USD, which could take the pair lower towards the nearest resistance at 0.6574. After that, the 200 SMA will act as dynamic support near the 0.6555 level, followed by 0.6465.
The overall trend of the AUD/USD shows that the bulls retain control despite the short-term bullishness of the USD. After all, the AUD/USD is still trading above the 200 SMA on the D1 chart, which means the long-term trend is still bullish.
Despite the bullish long-term trend, the AUD/USD pair has started the week with modest losses and is trading near 0.6650.
If we look at the monetary policy, the two banks which are the most likely to cut rates are the RBA and the US Fed. This is despite the fact that both banks continue to maintain a bullish stance but have not delivered any rate hike in the past few months.
Up ahead, the first bank to cut rates will be the one to lose this race between the USD and the AUD. An early rate cut from the RBA will allow the USD to shine while an early rate cut from Fed will strengthen the AUD.