According to UOB Group, the USD/JPY is expected to trade in the range of 146.50 - 148.60. Over the long term, the US dollar's strength will remain a dominant theme in the pair.
However, there are many risk factors that could influence the USD/JPY. The first one is the trade tariffs ,which are only paused for a short while. On the other hand, the risks of a recession in the US are too real to ignore.
Last but not least, the US economy will weaken if the Trump administration continues with its policies. It is not so easy to just immediately start the manufacturing of products in the USA. At best, it would take years before that can actually happen.
In the meantime, the US consumers will have to face higher prices and a higher inflation. This will also force the US Federal Reserve to slow down on its rate cuts or even go with rate hikes in the worst case scenario.
Based on all of this, the UOB Group believes that the USD/JPY will lack any definite direction. Instead, the USD/JPY will remain stuck in a 200-pip range.
For now, the USD/JPY is trading near the 146.00 handle. Given all the risks faced by the pair, the most probable target will be 144.00. But if the US Dollar gets the upper hand, the next target for the USD/JPY will be near 150.00.
While we discuss the USD/JPY, it's also worth checking the Gold prices. A global flight towards safety has pushed the Gold to record highs.
At times like this, we can also expect a similar move in the Japanese Yen. So, in this regard, it seems that the UOB Group's forecast may not be that accurate.
So, another forecast is that the USD/JPY will likely move lower and touch the 140.00 handle during the next few months.