November delivered a surprise in the form of a narrow trade deficit. According to sources, consumer goods-related imports reduced to yearly lows as the demand from domestic consumers has also touched historic lows.
If the same trend also appears during December, the 4th quarter growth will not be impacted by the trade. A lower trade deficit is generally good, but let's remember that it also highlights that local demand is subdued, leading to lower economic activities.
The report also showed that imports are just one thing that has gone down in November. Exports also showed a decline, which highlights weakness in the global demand. That's why it is safe to say that slow demand isn't a problem faced only by the USA.
But why has the slow demand plagued the significant economies of the world? One expert highlights that it has to do with high-interest rates, which have dented demand and inflation.
Everyone agrees that the Fed is done with its rate-hiking cycle. But, the main question now is when the policy will shift and when the first rate cut will be made. Similar questions about the ECB, BoE, & other central banks are also present.
According to Capital Economics, the weakness in global growth has also found its way into domestic demand. As a result, November led to a decline in the exports and imports.
2% decline was recorded in the trade deficit, which is around $63 billion (USD). The report also revised October's data with an updated value of $64.5 billion.
According to various economists, November's trade deficit forecast was around $65 billion. So, the actual data was a lot better than it initially expected. During the same period, imports into the USA also decreased by 1.9%!