The GBP/USD pair touched a 3Y high near the 1.3450. Since then, the pair has moved lower and is hovering near the 1.3300 handle.
According to HSBC, the GBP/USD is expected to end the year 2025 near 1.3200. They added that the GBP will not be able to use the Dollar vulnerability to its advantage. In fact, the GBP will also struggle in the upcoming months.
That's why HSBC believes that GBP/USD will remain unchanged for the rest of 2025. The bank added that the recent gains in the Pound are not sustainable.
In fact, the GBP has all the signs of losing ground against other currencies. But since the US Dollar will also turn weak, it will balance out the GBP weakness.
Meanwhile, HSBC also commented on how higher rates in the UK will provide support to the GBP. Also, the risk conditions are non-existent, which will also play a role in the equation.
Looking ahead, the GBP will need positive capital inflows to ensure it can finance the account deficit. So, we don't expect any major upside in the GBP! In fact, the GBP is at a much higher risk of bearish pressure.
Also, domestic weakness or the worsening of the global economy will put the GBP at a disadvantage. The risks faced by the Pound will become amplified if the BoE starts to cut rates at a fast pace.
Going forward, HSBC is equally curious when it comes to the US Dollar. They added that the world's trust in the US Dollar has eroded, and it will not be easy to reverse the situation. Also, the US economy faces structural vulnerability and political uncertainty.
Overall, both currencies (GBP and USD) face their own challenges. So, it will be a match between the two currencies to find which one has the worst odds.