The DXY (US Dollar Index) gained a significant upside after the release of NFP and ISM PMI. As a result of the USD strength, the NZD/USD ended up losing most of its upside but still managed to close the week with a 0.70% upside.
On the New Zealand front, there was no major data that could boost the NZD, which means we will have to wait until next week for the NZD to show some muscles.
The market interpreted the NFT report as mixed (not bullish or bearish) and, thus, initially caused the USD to experience a sell-off. However, the US PMI was released afterward and thus supported the USD against the NZD, EUR, & other currencies.
For now, the focus is on August's CPI, which is due on 13th September and will allow the Fed to make a more informed decision about the upcoming rate hikes.
The NZD/USD D1 chart indicates that the trend will stay between bearish and neutral but not bullish. However, that doesn't mean there are no risks ahead for the bulls, as any new economic event might shift the dominant trend in the pair.
A closer look at the RSI indicator suggests that the market has found an equilibrium between the buying & selling pressure. In addition, the MACD is printing green bars of the same size, which tells us that not much is happening and the bars might change to red.
Another factor that supports the case of a bearish NZD/USD is that the current price is below the important SMA lines, such as 20 and 100.
For the next week, the important support levels for the NZD/USD are 0.5930 and then 0.5900. Next up, we have the 0.5880 support level, which might provide some breathing space for the bulls.
On the other hand, the significant resistance levels for the NZD/USD are 0.5967 and then 0.5980. If both of these levels are conquered by the NZD bulls, the pair will then move to challenge the 0.6000 level.