According to Nordea, the decline of the US Dollar will continue in the coming months. That's why Nordea is now forecasting the GBP/USD to move higher towards the 1.40 handle.
For now, the GBP/USD is seen hovering in the 1.3500 to 1.3700 area. It's worth noting that this level is already a 40 month high for the GBP/USD and shows the apparent weakness of the US Dollar.
The Nordea analyst also added that they remain bearish on the US Dollar in the medium term. They commented on how the net capital outflows are weighing on the US Dollar. At the same time, Nordea is a little less pessimistic about the GBP.
Given all of the recent developments, Nordea has set the 2025 end target for GBP/USD at 1.40. Earlier, the analysts were forecasting the GBP/USD to end the year at 1.31.
The bank also believes that the global outlook will remain balanced. This will lead to a decline in the US Dollar support and will also signal an end to US exceptionalism.
Also, the funds are expected to diversify their portfolio and lower their exposure to the US assets. Once again, that's a factor that will weigh heavily on the US assets.
Last but not least, the speed of the reallocation will be way faster than what the markets are expecting. As a result, this will lead to more dollar damage across most pairs.
Another factor that goes against the US Dollar is the ongoing trade tensions. It seems the USA has opened multiple fronts, and that's not something that can be solved in months.
As for the Federal Reserve, no more rate cuts are expected by the Nordea analysts. So, that's yet one more reason why the GBP/USD will move higher in the coming months.
As for the year 2026, Nordea believes that GBP/USD will hit a roadblock and will fail to move any higher.