As we approach the end of Monday's session, the sentiment surrounding the EUR/USD remains positive as it is trading above the 1.0800 level.
After the release of investor confidence data, the EURO received a little selling pressure, but the overall positive market mood helped the pair to stay positive.
If we look at the bigger picture, the EUR/USD pair is very close to 1.0765, which was the low of August. So based on that, the chances of further downside are very high. On the daily chart, the EUR/USD is trading below all main MA lines, especially the 200 SMA present at 1.0815.
In addition, the 20 SMA also continues to exert bearish pressure and is currently above the 200 SMA line. For the most part, the technical indicators continue to print negative numbers despite the short-term optimism.
Based on available information, the short-term to 4-hr timeframe suggests limited upside. After all, all the MA lines and other technical indicators point towards strong selling pressure. Furthermore, the technical indicators have already moved out of the oversold levels, which means the pair is now ready to dive down again.
The EUR/USD support levels to watch out for are located near 1.0765 and then at 1.0720. After that, the next important support will be 1.0760.
On the flip side, the EUR/USD resistance levels are present near 1.0815 and then 1.0850. If both of these levels are conquered by the bulls, the next fuel stop will be 1.0890.
On the data front, the July Trade Balance of Germany shows a 15.9 billion surplus which was below the expectations. In addition, the Sentix Investor Confidence for the Euro Zone during September was -21.5 from an earlier reading of -18.9. Once again, none of the economic data coming out of Europe supports the case of a stronger EUR against the USD.
All of the technical and fundamental readings of the EUR/USD suggest that bearish play is ahead despite the recent calm in the pair.