AUD/USD has moved into a defensive position after the release of mixed inflation data from China. The overall market mood is of risk aversion as the Fed's decision and US CPI are due in the coming days.
That's one of the reasons why the AUD/USD has still managed to hold its positon despite the subpar Chinese data. However, a strong bearish momentum can send the AUD/USD towards 0.6539, where the 200 SMA is located.
Any more selling in the AUD/USD will open the doors to the 0.6465 and then the 0.6363 handle, where the April 19 low is located.
Another scenario is a resumption of the bullish trend, which will enable the AUD/USD to retest the 0.6714 handle and then the 0.6800 static level. Once these two levels are cleared, the next stop for the AUD bulls will be 0.6871 and then 0.6894.
For now, the bigger picture is positive for the AUD/USD, provided that the pair can sustain its price action above the 200 SMA on the D1 chart.
look at the 4-hour chart tells us that the AUD/USD is going through consolidation in the short term. The nearest support is seen at the 0.6547 and then the 0.6557 level. Similarly, the nearest resistance is 0.6615, and then the 0.6700 handle.
The biggest concern for the AUD/USD is the market's cautious stance, as the Chinese CPI was mixed and didn't paint a good picture of the Chinese economy.
At the same time, the prices of iron and copper are going through a correction phase, which also weighs heavily on the AUD/USD pair.
And if we look at the monetary policy, the Fed and the RBA will likely be the last banks among their peers to lower the interest rate. The RBA minutes already show that some officials are also thinking about rate hikes at this stage rather than rate cuts.