The German government has changed its GDP growth forecast for the year 2024 from 0.2% to 0.3%. At the same time, Germany has also changed its forecast for inflation by around -0.4%.
It appears that the forecast made by the government of Germany is part of their 'draft spring projections.' Up ahead is the economic minister of Germany, 'Robert Habeck,' which will shed more light on the issue.
In the year 2025, the GDP forecast is expected to jump by +1.00%, which suggests a major jump in the German economy.
If we look at inflation forecasts, it will likely be around 2.4% in the year 2024. Earlier, the government was looking towards a number of 2.8%. Next year (2025), the inflation will likely drop to around 1.8%.
It seems that even the economic experts are of the view that inflation will drop in 2024 and 2025. This was revealed in the Ifo Institute's quarterly survey.
The survey also revealed that the expectations for inflation have gone further down when compared with the earlier quarter.
As for the inflation forecast in the medium term, it will likely remain above the target of central banks around the world. The decline in the inflationary pressure will likely be driven due to the decline in gas & electricity prices.
According to the Ifo Institute, the inflation pressure in Germany will be near 2.3% this year and then fall to 1.6% in the year 2025.
They also added that the forecasts they made were in line with the forecasts made by the futures markets.
In 2023, the weakest economy among all the other EU countries was Germany. The reasons for this were high energy costs, high-interest rates, and weak global orders.
For the year 2024, the forecasts suggest that inflation will remain weak while GDP growth will remain weak despite the positive revision.
Meanwhile, IFM has also issued a GDP forecast for Germany for the year 2024 & 2025. The report reveals that it will be around 0.3% for this year and next year.