Danske Bank has recently released a new report revealing that the US is buying crude oil slowly. Although the pace is slow, the USA is still piling up the oil in its strategic reserves.
As the pace of buying oil is slow, it means we can't expect strong support for the US oil market. As a result, the prices of the crude oil will continue to struggle in the near term.
The low prices of the oil also represent a great opportunity for the US government. They can start to fill up their strategic oil reserves and take advantage of the weaker oil prices.
However, buying the oil aggressively could also be taken as a positive signal by the oil market. As a result, the oil prices will start to rise once again.
So, it seems that it goes in favor of the US government to buy the oil at a slow pace. At the same time, we must also remember that the US economy continues to show signs of weakness.
In addition, OPEC+ is also expected to announce an output hike. Everyone knows that an increase in OPEC production will also lead to excessive supply and weaker prices.
And last but not least, the trade policy uncertainty remains a big threat to the oil market. The worldwide trade is fueled by crude oil, and any decline in trading activities will also weaken the oil prices.
Amidst all of this, it makes sense to forecast that the oil prices will remain weak during Q2 and Q3 of 2025. However, the one thing that could support the oil prices is further production cuts by the OPEC and the OPEC+.
But for now, there is no reason to believe that the crude oil market will start a new bullish trend anytime soon.