Gold had a pretty good 2024, with gains of 27.5%. The catalysts for this rally were the rate cuts by central banks, weaker US Dollar, & geopolitical tension.
However, the rise in the yellow metal has also sparked some concerns. The biggest one is: The Gold rally will continue in 2025 or we are due for a sharp correction!
Another thing to note here is that Gold reached the $2800 level after the win of Donald Trump. However, the recent price action shows that the sentiment is now shifting.
With that in mind, let's look at some factors that could drive the Gold up or lower:
The first factor that goes in favor of the gold is high geopolitical tension. Including everything from tariff wars to trade policies and so on.
Another Gold positive factor is the risk of recession or economic slowdown. If the US economy slows down significantly, it will make it difficult for the Fed to go ahead with its monetary easing policy.
If we look at the bearish factors for Gold, the first one is a hawkish Fed. If the economic situation prevents the Federal Reserve from lowering the rates, it will strengthen the US Dollar.
Also, economic pressure on Russia could also force its central bank to sell some of its Gold reserves. This will increase the supply and thus lead to lower Gold prices. If the global risks start to ease down or even show signs of easing, it will also take money out of the Gold.
Technically speaking, a triangular consolidation pattern is presently building in gold. Significant price movements are frequently preceded by these formations, and the next trend will probably be determined by the breakout direction.
Strength would be indicated by a breakout above $2,800 per ounce, which may lead to fresh all-time highs.
The support zone around $2,500 would be the first target for selling in the event of a fall below $2,500 per ounce, which may lead to a deeper downturn.