little retracement was seen in AUD/USD during Tuesday's session as the markets await the release of the Australian budget. According to Treasurer Chalmers, the budget will show positive developments, which means a decline in the inflation levels is now a high probability.
In case of falling inflation, the AUD/USD could register some extra gains and revisit the 0.6647 level (high of May). After that, the next level that could block the AUD/USD's advance is 0.6667 and 0.6871.
However, if the AUD/USD bears take control of the pair, then the area between 0.6572 and 0.6539 will gain importance as the 100 and the 55 SMA are located here. Next up is the 0.6520 support, where the 200 SMA is present, followed by the levels at 0.6465 and 0.6362.
The bigger picture suggests that the AUD/USD will likely stay positive and register more gains. However, all of this depends on the fact that AUD/USD must stay above the 200 SMA on the D1 chart.
look at the 4-hour chart shows a resurgence of buying momentum in the AUD/USD. However, the nearest resistance is present at 0.6647 and then 0.6667. Similarly, the nearest support is present at the 0.6585 and then the 0.6557.
Another factor that supports a stronger AUD/USD is the selling of the greenback, which will spark renewed interest in riskier assets like the AUD.
As far as the AUD/USD is concerned, the key event up ahead is the release of the Australian budget. Additionally, the RBA kept the rates unchanged at the May 7th meeting. Overall, the RBA has maintained a neutral policy but has hinted at showing flexibility if needed.
The RBA has also revised its economic forecasts as it believes that inflation will turn higher in Q2 2025. The reason behind this forecast is the rising inflation in service prices. However, the RBA also added that inflation will fall down to the 2 - 3% range by the end of 2025.