The Labor Department of the USA has released the latest CPI data for October. As per the report, the headline inflation jumped by 2.6% in October on an annual basis.
There's no doubt that the Fed will have a long & hard look at the US CPI release at its next meeting. In September, the annual CPI was recorded at 2.4%, which has now gone up to 2.6% in October.
As for the inflation on a m/m basis, it jumped by 0.2%. This was similar to September's reading and showed no major change.
However, what's more troubling is the core CPI, which has gone up by 3.3% y/y. As for the core CPI on a m/m basis, the increase was 0.3%.
senior expert said that the recent CPI report had no major surprises. So if we view the report in light of these comments, it means its just business as usual.
Now, the Fed members will consider the recent CPI print to decide their next move. In fact, this data-dependant approach will likely continue as we enter into 2025.
For now, there is a 69% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut the rates by 0.25% in December. Recently, Fed Powell also commented on how they have adopted a very slow approach when it comes to bringing the rates down to neutral levels.
They want to maintain an environment that doesn't stop the economic activities. At the same time, they also don't want a resurgence in inflation at this time.
Looking ahead, things are looking tough for the US Federal Reserve as they have been trying to counter inflation for years.
With Trump coming into office, the Fed will have to make some major changes to its monetary policy. On the surface, the Trump policies are aimed at driving growth which will also drive up the inflation rate.