After a brief pause, the Mexican Peso (MXN) has once again resumed its uptrend during Friday's session. The MXN appears to be benefiting from the fact that the USD has come under pressure after the PPI, CPI, and Retail Sales data.
For now, the USD/MXN is trading near 16.63 with a downward bias, which is a sign of the MXN's strength. Similarly, the GBP/MXN and the EUR/MXN are trading near 21.09 and 18.07, respectively.
The bigger picture is that the MXN has now turned stable after going through volatility in the last few days. So, after going through a period of no action, the MXN is finally back with gains against the other major currencies.
The data from the USA was mostly mixed & the Fed has made no comments about any early rate cuts. However, the markets believe that rate cuts are now coming sooner, which is helping the MXN gain ground.
If we look at the USD/MXN 4-hour chart, the pair appears to be in in a downtrend as it has broken out of 16.86, the lower end of the range.
So, if the USD/MXN can manage to break the 16.64 support level (15th May low), it means yet another leg lower for the pair.
According to experts, any further downside in the USD/MXN will allow it to turn even lower and touch the 16.54 price target. Any further selling of the USD means revisiting the 16.34, which is also a major support.
In short, the trend is bearish whether we look at the short, medium, or even the long-term. However, that could change with new data from the USA that hints at higher rates for long.
On the contrary, a move higher towards the 16.86 will be a sign that the MXN bullish run has come to an end and the USD is back in the driving seat.