Gold (XAU/USD) has gained almost 50% during 2022 and around 25% since the middle of February. It is safe to say that gold (XAU/USD) is trading at record highs, which also represents the current situation in the financial markets.
Morgan Stanley's analysts believe this upside is driven by Gold's physical market, as evidenced by the record purchases made by the central banks in 2022 and 2023. Additionally, retail buying of Gold has also increased in 2024, especially in China, where the demand for coins & gold bars has increased.
Moreover, Gold ETFs have also received more than usual inflows since May 2024. This was witnessed after the ECB's June rate cut, which made Gold a more favorable asset.
According to experts, a similar move will be seen following the upcoming rate cut in the USA. So, once the September rate cut is delivered, we will see another rally in the Gold prices.
Based on all of this, Morgan Stanley has forecasted a price of $3000 for Gold in Q4 2024. According to the strategists from Morgan Stanley, recession fears in the USA are on the rise, but the economy will relieve a soft landing. Additionally, a rate cut is on the horizon which presents an ideal opportunity for Gold.
Morgan Stanley added that the recent rally in the Gold is based on the physical factors. However, the next leg higher in Gold will be driven by financial flows as funds will move towards the Gold market.
By Q4 2024, the Gold prices are expected to touch a high of $2650. Similarly, many other analysts and experts are even citing a $3000 /oz price for the Gold.
Another development that's expected in the Gold market is an increase in volatility as we approach closer to September, the month of a rate cut. To conclude, things are looking really good for Gold as we are approaching the end of Q3 and the start of Q4 2024.