Commerzbank has recently shared its analysis on the European Gas market. According to them, the market is showing signs of easing as states now have more flexibility on how they meet the storage targets.
Earlier, a 90% filling rate was the target before the start of the withdrawal phase. Now, the member states of the EU can deviate up to 10% from this target, which gives them more flexibility.
An additional 5% deviation is also allowed if the market conditions are unfavorable. Last but not least, the deadline was also extended by two months, which also led to easing in the EU gas market.
According to Commerzbank, all of these measures will dampen the gas price volatility and will be beneficial in the long run.
Since the start of 2025, there were doubts that the 90% target couldn't be achieved given the current storage levels. As a result of these doubts, an increase in gas prices was seen.
But now that the tariffs are more flexible, the member states will have more control over when they want to buy the gas. This will also save the states from buying the gas at high or unfavorable prices.
As far as the demand side is concerned, that's a lot of relief for the EU gas market. One expert added that LNG imports from China will also be lower compared to last year.
The reason for this is strong inflows from the Russian pipeline. So if the LNG import demand from China remains weak, it will also help to put the EU gas prices in check.
Also, we are a long way from winter, which means the demand for gas in Europe isn't expected to spike. So, that's also another thing that will further ease the gas prices in the EU region.