According to a poll of analysts, China's exports increased during April but at a much lower speed than last month. The growth can be traced back to the unfulfilled orders during the COVID. However, slow global growth remains a major threat to the Chinese export sector.
The marketing is expecting Chinese exports to rise by 8.0% YoY during April after posting growth of 14.8% during March. Although the growth of 8% is good, we can't deny the fact that it is a lot slower than what we saw during March.
When asked about the imports made by the Chinese economy, the experts said that no growth is expected at all. Just a month ago, a 1.4% decline on a YoY basis was noticed in the imports, which paints a not-so-good picture of the Chinese economy.
We also can't deny the fact that the major trade partners of China are standing at the edge of a recession. In addition, the improvement seen during March also highlights that unfulfilled orders are now finally complete.
If we look at the manufacturing purchasing manager's index, it shows a sharp contraction in new export orders during April. This highlights the challenges faced by businesses and Chinese policymakers during the post-COVID recovery era.
According to an economist at Nomura, a growth of 14.8% YoY is unsustainable at best. They also added that the export growth would likely be in single-digit or even dip into the negative territory.
The reason for painting this bleak picture of the Chinese economy is the rise in geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in the global economy.
China also imports a lot of items from South Korea - So if we look at the exports made by South Korea to China, they went dow by 26.5% during April! So even on that front, it appears that the Chinese economy is showing signs of a slowdown.