AUD/JPY has once again resumed its leg lower on Friday with a change of -0.20% for the day. Right now, the AUD/JPY is trading around 105.25 with the next targets at 105.00 and then 104.80.
As the bearish trend has resumed once again, this is a sign that gains seen on Thursday were just a correction phase rather than a trend reversal. This also highlights the fact that the AUD/JPY remains under the influence of bears.
With the AUD/JPY pair already down by 1.60% for the week, the outlook remains negative. This also highlights a broader strength of the Japanese Yen as evident from other pairs such as USD/JPY and EUR/JPY.
look at the AUD/JPY D1 chart shows an RSI reading of 42.00, a sign of bearish momentum. Additionally, this is also below the value from Thursday, which means the negative trend will likely continue today as well.
similar picture is seen in the MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), which also prints red bars. Moreover, the size of the MACD's red bars is also increasing, which means the number of sellers is increasing.
Given the recent price action, it is safe to say that the recent minor rebound seen in the AUD/JPY was nothing but a technical correction. In simple words, it allowed the AUD/JPY bears to catch their breath before resuming the downtrend once again.
The bigger picture shows that the short-term negative trend in the AUD/JPY will continue for a while. After all, the AUD/JPY is trading below the 20 SMA, which shows that the short-term is dominated by the bears. The next support for the AUD/JPY is near the 10.500, which could prevent any deeper correction.
As for a potential trend change, the AUD/JPY bulls will need to reclaim the 106.00 handle and then the 106.50. Once these 2 levels are conquered, the trend will shift in favor of the bulls.