The data from the ONS (Office for National Statistics) shows that the UK's CPI jumped by 2.0% y/y in June. This was similar to the 2.0% reading from May and shows that the inflation levels have stabilized.
The market was also expecting a 2.0% inflation for the month of June. Similarly, the inflation levels in the UK are also at the same level as the BoE's target of 2.0%.
As for the Core CPI, which doesn't include energy & food items, the reading was 3.5% y/y during June. Once again, the UK's core CPI was similar to the reading seen in May 2024.
Additionally, the UK's services CPI also remained unchanged at 5.7% y/y, showing a similar trend to the CPI and the Core CPI.
However, the UK's CPI on a m/m basis registered a 0.1% growth in June against the 0.3% growth in May 2024. But, this was also in line with the forecast of 0.1%, so no surprise on that side as well.
The recent CPI reading has proven to be a wave of fresh air for the GBP, as the GBP/USD is now en route to 1.3000. Similarly, the GBP/USD is trading around the 1.2980 handle, only 20 pips away from the 1.3000 resistance.
The UK CPI inflation report is an important metric that provides insights into consumer spending behaviors as well as price inflation. This is also used by the Bank of England (BoE) to adjust its monetary policy and to decide on a rate cut/rate hike.
Now that the inflation has once again remained unchanged at 2.0%, the possibility of any rate hike from the BoE is out of the question. However, this has also given rise to a new question - When the BoE will deliver the next rate cut?
Some analysts believe that once the inflation declines below 2.0%, only then will the BoE move ahead with another rate cut.