Usdjpy To Stay Bullish In Next 6 Months

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Usdjpy To Stay Bullish In Next 6 Months

USD/JPY To Stay Above The 145.00 In Next 6 Months - Rabobank

The USD/JPY pair is trading near the 149.80 level and is only 20 pips away from the long-awaited 150.00 resistance level. Given the importance of the 150.00 level, it is only natural to assume strong selling pressure.

At the same time, intervention from the Bank of Japan also can't be ruled out if the 150.00 level is taken out. After all, the Bank of Japan will try its best to support the Japanese Yuan against the US Dollar.

USD Strength To Sustain In The Next Few Months

According to Rabobank analysts, the USD/JPY is expected to stay above the 145.00 level in the next 6 months. So even if the bears take charge of the USD/JPY, the chances of dropping below 145.00 are very slim. The Rabobank's analysts also added that the BoJ intervention is strongly tied with the 150 level.

So once the 150 level is crossed, the Bank of Japan will step in to support the JPY & thus will push the pair lower. For the short term, the upside risk in the USD/JPY remains high.

In the next few months, the BOJ might work towards making its policy more normal as well. As for the exact time & scope of this change, it still remains unknown.

However, Rabobank remains confident that the USD will continue to stay strong as we enter into the year 2024. Given the USD strength, it only makes sense for us to assume that the USD/JPY will also stay above the 145.00 level in the first few months of 2024 as well.

But one thing that could change this forecast is the action from the BoJ. If the central bank decides that the FX rate of USD/JPY should be even lower than 145.00, it may become difficult for the pair to trade positively. However, the chances of that happening are low as any intervention by the BoJ also costs the bank a lot of money!

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