According to a senior strategist from UOB, the NZD/USD pair will need to conquer the 0.6225 resistance before it can gain any ground. This forecast was made for the short term, which suggests that it doesn't change the NZD/USD's bigger picture.
The UOB made a forecast yesterday, which showed that the NZD will need to cross the 0.6225 handle. Even though the NZD was showing overbought conditions, the UOB made it clear that the pair could still make further advances.
However, the New Zealand Dollar failed to cross the 0.6225 resistance and thus moved lower towards the 0.6222 - 0.6151 region. Today, the NZD/USD is still dropping lower amid an increase in the bearish momentum.
Given the current macroeconomic & technical situation, the NZD/USD will likely drop lower to the 0.6140 region. However, the pair will not cross that support level in the first attempt.
At the same time, it doesn't mean that the NZD/USD bulls will be able to defend the 0.6140 handle for long. UOB strategists believe that the NZD will need to cross the 0.6200 handle to put the pressure off the 0.6140 support.
In the next 1 to 3 weeks, UOB believes that NZD/USD can turn bullish as long as it can cross the 0.6225 handle. Although the pair dropped significantly from the 0.6222 level to around 0.6151, the support near 0.6140 is still intact. At the same time, the recent drop has also lowered the chances of a break above the 0.6225 handle.
The time is running out, which means the NZD/USD will need to cross the 0.6225 resistance in the next few days. If the NZD bulls fail to conquer this level, the pair will likely cross the 0.6130 support as well.
The UOB strategist added that a break of 0.6130 will be a sign that the NZD/USD will likely resort to range trading for the time being.
At the same time, any new updates from the fundamental side could also skew the outcome of the UOB forecasts related to NZD/USD.